Now or never: What the IPCC report means for travel

Every eight years, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change publishes a report which analyses the impacts of climate change and makes calculations for future outcomes for the earth. The latest report analysed over 14,000 academic papers to get the most comprehensive picture on climate change.

It cannot be overstated: This report is the most important published in climate science. The 2013 report was the precursor to the Paris Climate Agreement. The 2021 report likely will be critical to future pledges.

How warm will the world get? 

The world has been talking of net-zero by 2050 to limit global warming to under 1.5C. Whenever someone talks about the Paris Agreement, they are referring to this 1.5C pledge. The new report shows that the greenhouse gasses released by human activities already have resulted in 1.1C of warming since 1900. And that’s just the start. Over the next 20 years, global temperatures are expected to surge past 1.5C of warming in every likely mitigation scenario.

The ‘best case’ mitigation scenario assumes we will reach net-zero in advance of 2050, which is considered very unlikely, and then to start capturing greenhouse gases, also unlikely. This ‘best case’ scenario still led to global temperature rises of 1.6C.

More likely scenarios, such as hitting net-zero by 2050 lead to a 1.7C rise. Continuing emissions as they are today will cause a 2.0C rise. Increasing emissions—like we have seen for the last 20 years—would cause a 2.1C to 2.4C rise by mid-century and a 3.6 to 4.4C rise by the end of the century.

What does this warming mean?

Exceeding the 1.5C threshold will be catastrophic. Eight per cent of plants will lose their geographic range, which would require global agricultural systems to adapt to mitigate global food shortages. Nine per cent of the global population already faces food insecurity without increased pressure on supply.

Extreme heat waves that once happened every 50 years before 1850 now will happen every six years. The world’s oceans will rise at least half a metre. Hundreds of millions of people will be plunged into food scarcity and deeper poverty.

If temperatures hit 2.0C, the impact of almost everything doubles: 16 per cent of plants lose their geographic range. The once-in-50-year extreme heat wave will happen once every 3.5 years. In short, we would be risking an extinction-level event.

This is all without discussing low-likelihood, but extremely high-impact events that could occur. For example, chain reaction events that cause ocean currents to change which drastically alter weather systems throughout the world in a catastrophic or totally unpredictable manner.

What it means for travel

First, the travel landscape will literally change. It is now almost certain that many places in the world will be underwater before 2050. The Maldives, which sit 1 metre above sea level, and beachfront Miami are unlikely to be tourist locations in the near future. As these realities manifest, governments will have no choice but to take action, if they have not already.   

We expect nations to increase the speed and cost of carbon taxes. This will lead to vastly increased airfares and the end of the ‘low-cost’ travel boom seen in much of the world. Governments also will begin setting carbon reporting and capping requirements to ensure businesses reduce their emissions. If left too late, this will be expensive for businesses to implement.

Many nations will accelerate plans to invest in high-speed rail infrastructure to provide a low carbon alternative to short- and medium-haul aviation. High-speed low-emission ferries will begin for longer-haul aviation. We expect this to be in particularly high demand on transatlantic routes, where today flights are still the lowest-carbon way to cross the Atlantic for the average person.

Flight shaming already has increase, and it will lead to shareholder rebellion—we have seen as much at both Booking.com and Exxonmobil in the last few months. We expect this issue will hit business travel especially hard.

Carbon emissions aren't only about air travel. Demand for electric vehicles will increase. So far, no major car rental company has made commitments on electric vehicles. They will either respond to pressure or find themselves scrambling to catch-up and acquire upstarts.

Steps business should take today

The Covid-19 pandemic has shown that well-prepared businesses are the most resilient. Businesses need to calculate their travel carbon footprints accurately. This should use more than averages, so travel managers can spot travel program problems, which inversely are carbon reduction opportunities.

Once a business knows its travel carbon footprint, it should put in a plan to try and reach net-zero. As the recent IPCC report shows, the goalposts have moved, and net-zero must occur before 2050.

Finally, businesses need to find ways to communicate their carbon emissions realities and goals to their employees so the grassroots of a business can take the steps required to deliver change.