American Express Global Business Travel has published its annual Air Monitor 2024, predicting a stabilisation of fares on key business travel routes and a broad outlook of increased price stability.
Dan Beauchamp, head of consulting at Amex GBT said of the predictions: “While the
expected softening of fare rises is good news for our customers,
sourcing for corporate travel programmes remains a challenging
environment.”
The report shows airfares within Europe are projected to rise by around 1 per cent overall but offers regional predictions too.
Airfares between Europe and the Middle East are expected to fall 3.5 per cent in business class and 2.8 per cent in economy.
Between Europe and North America fares will increase a little in
business class, by 0.3 per cent, but fall by 2.5 per cent in economy.
Between Europe and South America business class fares look set to fall 3.9 per cent and by 10.4 per cent in economy.
Airfares between Europe and Africa are set to increase by 1.2 per cent in business class and by 1.9 per cent in economy.
Airfares between Europe and Asia are projected to decline in both classes; by 4.7 per cent in business and by 4.5 per cent in economy class.
Amex GBT says the research takes into account influencing factors including airline capacity, local inflation, foreign exchange, and fuel surcharges.
The report notes that while airlines saw record earnings in 2023 resulting from robust demand, high fares, and a drop in the price of jet fuel, the boom in 'revenge' travel now seems to be slowing as consumer preferences fall prey to high interest rates.
Since the summer airlines have also seen a rise of oil and jet fuel prices putting pressure on carriers, and adding to the cost burden.